Articles by FER Edit

Labor Department To Push Appeal On Overtime Rule

By FER Edit

The Labor Department is challenging an injunction that has put a hold on changes to federal overtime regulations.

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FDA Clarifies Menu Labeling Rule

By FER Edit

The Food and Drug Administration will soon publish a final rule formally extending the compliance date for menu labeling regulations to May 5, 2017. The…

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Growth Slowed For MAFSI Reps In Third Quarter, 2017 Forecast Is 4.4%

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After a remarkable six-quarter run during which the MAFSI Business Barometer increased an average 4.9% per quarter, the growth rate slowed in the third quarter…

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Technomic Pares Operator Sales Forecasts For 2016, 2017

By FER Edit

The slowdown in restaurant sales and traffic, particularly at major chains but also in other key segments, has led the Chicago-based foodservice research firm Technomic Inc. to lower its forecast of sales growth for both 2016 and 2017.

“It’s pretty apparent that there’s some softening in certain parts of the industry,” Technomic Senior Principal David Henkes wrote in sending FER the revisions, which were released to Technomic customers in November. The firm now expects total industry nominal sales growth to be 4.1% this year and 4.2% in 2017. This compares with the preliminary forecast released last May of 5% nominal growth for 2016 and 4.9% for 2017. Real changes after factoring out inflation are now forecast at 1.6% for 2017 and 1.7% for 2017 compared with the earlier forecasts of 2.4% and 2.3% respectively. The firm forecasts menu-price inflation of 2.7% for commercial segments in both years.

The biggest revisions in growth rates are in the restaurant segments and lodging foodservice. Technomic cut the nominal forecast for limited-service restaurants, which includes both traditional quick-service and fast-casual concepts, to 4.5% for 2016 and 4.8% for 2017 from the previous 5.5% and 5.7% forecasts. The forecast for full-service restaurants was pared even more to 3.5% growth for both years from the previous forecast of 4.9% for 2016 and 4.3% for 2017. The forecast for lodging foodservice nominal growth was lowered to 5.3% in 2016 from 7.3% in the previous forecast and 5.1% next year from the original 6.8%.

In commenting on factors that led the firm to revise the forecasts, Henkes noted the following:

  •     Casual dining, particularly the larger chains, has seen a fairly large decline in traffic, and many chains are reporting declining same-store sales. (This is a big part of the “restaurant recession” that the press has noted.) At the same time, we do believe independents are relatively strong and healthy, although perhaps not to the degree from 12 to18 months ago.
  •     Fast casual is reaching maturation, with public chains also showing slowing same-store sales growth. Continued trouble at industry leader Chipotle doesn’t help.
  •     Menu price inflation continues to make dining out relatively less attractive compared to eating at home; this is certainly impacting the frequency of dining out for many consumers.
  •     Continued competition from other outlets, including c-stores, supermarkets, meal kits and other “non-traditional” areas have impacted restaurant sales.

Further information on the forecast and on other Technomic research can be found at www.technomic.com

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Consumer Confidence Surges Post-Election

By FER Edit

Consumer confidence rose sharply following the presidential election, according to both the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers and The Conference Board. The UM’s Consumer…

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Starbucks CEO Schultz Moves Aside To Lead High-End Store Initiative

By FER Edit

Howard Schultz is stepping down in April as chief executive of the Starbucks Corp. so he can lead the company’s new strategic initiative to build high-end coffee shops. He will remain chairman of the 45-year-old Seattle chain.

Schultz will be succeeded by President and Chief Operating Officer Kevin Johnson, who served on Starbucks’ board for several years before joining its executive team two years ago. Schultz, who began handing off daily oversight of the 25,000-unit chain a few months ago, says he has no plans to step away from the company.

Starbucks’ move toward high-end coffee is aimed at refreshing its brand, which has been facing increasing competition from specialty roasters such as Intelligentsia and from mass coffee purveyors like Dunkin’ Donuts. ​Two years ago, Starbucks opened the Seattle Reserve Roastery and Tasting Room, a 15,000-sq.ft. store where customers can buy $12 cups of small-batch “reserve” coffees made with a siphon brewing technique. The company is planning to open 20 to 30 more of the high-end stores, including one twice its size in Shanghai next year. Also on the drawing board are up to 1,000 smaller stores similar to the Roastery, minus the on-site roasting, under the “Starbucks Reserve” brand.

Starbucks is also remodeling many of its stores with Reserve-branded coffee bars.

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NRA Partners With Multicultural Foodservice & Hospitality Alliance

By FER Edit

The National Restaurant Association marked a major milestone in its commitment to promoting and elevating diversity in the restaurant industry by welcoming the Multicultural Foodservice & Hospitality Alliance (MFHA) to the Association.

Founded in 1996, MFHA is a non-profit organization and educational resource on multicultural diversity issues for the restaurant, foodservice and lodging industry. “Since our inception, the NRA and the NRA Educational Foundation have supported MFHA’s mission to increase cultural awareness and advance diversity throughout the hospitality industry,” says Gerry Fernandez, MFHA founder and president.

In addition to advocating for career opportunities for people of color, MFHA is developing Cultural Intelligence training modules that help the industry improve business results in culturally diverse markets. NRA members will have full access to these Cultural Intelligence solutions, webinars, conferences, roundtables and consultation services.

 

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Gas Prices Rise On OPEC Agreement; Decent Jobs Report

By FER Edit

Employment and gasoline price trends are among two of the most important drivers of foodservice sales. Data released during the past week has jobs growth looking positive while gasoline prices have risen, though modestly, since an agreement by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production.

The U.S. added 178,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, a bit above economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate fell to a post-recession low of 4.6%, but mostly because of a drop in the number of Americans looking for work. Average hourly earnings fell slightly after several months of strong gains. Still, average hourly wages have risen 2.5% during the past 12 months, well ahead of the 1.6% gain in the Consumer Price Index during the past 12 months. Leisure and hospitality continued to add jobs with 29,000 created in November, including18,800 in foodservice.

Meanwhile, average gasoline prices, which had been falling for nearly a month as cheaper winter blends were being produced, have risen for eight consecutive days since OPEC announced an agreement to curtail production beginning Jan. 1. An average gallon of regular stood at $2.181 on Dec. 5, up from $2.125 the previous Monday, down from $2.222 a month ago and up from $2.042 a year ago. Crude oil prices have surged 12% since the announcement of the agreement. Still, while non-OPEC members such as Russia have said they will participate in the cuts, oil analysts and traders remain skeptical. 

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Former AutoQuotes President Joins Specifi To Run U.S. Business

By FER Edit

Industry veteran Michael Greenwald has been appointed President, The Americas, at Specifi LLC as the company initiates its launch into U.S. market. Greenwald brings to…

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Arvidson Tapped For Antunes’ International Sales Management Team

By FER Edit

Darren Arvidson has joined Antunes as International Sales Manager, and has taken over responsibility for the Carol Stream, Ill., company’s sales in the Middle East and India, as well as in select countries in Europe.

Arvidson brings nearly 25 years of sales and marketing experience to the position, including serving as regional manager-Europe for the commercial foodservice division of Vitamix and as regional sales manager for Pacojet AG.

“Darren brings significant experience in international foodservice sales, and we look to leverage his expertise to understand the unique challenges of our global customers and provide innovative, custom solutions to meet their needs,” says Daniel Schmidt, Antunes’s director of sales.

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